{"id":5263,"date":"2024-01-04T11:03:06","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T09:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inwest.lt\/?p=5263"},"modified":"2024-06-08T11:34:10","modified_gmt":"2024-06-08T09:34:10","slug":"gruodzio-naujienos-is-gretos-siauciulytes-cfa-inwest-ambasadores","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inwest.lt\/en\/gruodzio-naujienos-is-gretos-siauciulytes-cfa-inwest-ambasadores\/","title":{"rendered":"Gruod\u017eio Naujienos i\u0161 Gretos \u0160iau\u010diulyt\u0117s, CFA, INWEST Ambasador\u0117s"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2023-ieji \u2013 kokie jie buvo finans\u0173 rinkose?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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2023-iaisiais finans\u0173 rinkose i\u0161\u0161\u016bki\u0173 netr\u016bko. Auk\u0161ta infliacija, itin spar\u010diai grie\u017et\u0117jusi pinig\u0173 politika, bank\u0173 kriz\u0117 ir geopolitiniai konfliktai investuotojams k\u0117l\u0117 daug abejoni\u0173 ir neapibr\u0117\u017etumo. Ta\u010diau itin daug apkalb\u0117tos ir lauktos recesijos taip ir nesulauk\u0117me. 2023-iaisiais netik\u0117tas dirbtinio intelekto prover\u017eis akcij\u0173 rinkas gerokai kilstel\u0117jo \u012f vir\u0161\u0173 ir nors did\u017eiausi\u0105 prieaug\u012f generavo technologij\u0173 sektorius, met\u0173 pabaigoje prie jo prisijung\u0117 ir kiti ekonomikos sektoriai.<\/p>

Itin geri \u0161ie metai buvo kelioms technologij\u0173 mil\u017ein\u0117ms, dar vadinamosis \u201eMagnificent 7\u201c. \u0160is septynetukas, susidedantis i\u0161 \u201eMicrosoft\u201c, \u201eAmazon\u201c, \u201eApple\u201c, \u201eNvidia\u201c, \u201eAlphabet\u201c, \u201eMeta\u201c bei \u201eTesla\u201c \u012fmoni\u0173 sugeravao did\u017eiausi\u0105 gr\u0105\u017e\u0105 rinkoje.<\/p>

2023-i\u0173j\u0173 pabaiga pa\u017eym\u0117jo ir taip ilgai laukt\u0105 obligacij\u0173 rinkos sugr\u012f\u017eim\u0105. Obligacij\u0173 brangim\u0105 paskatino l\u016bkes\u010diai, kad FED grei\u010diausiai baigs didinti pal\u016bkan\u0173 normas ir kitais metais jas ma\u017eins 75 baziniais punktais. Pana\u0161u, jog 2024-ieji bus obligacij\u0173 metai. Jei pa\u017evelgsime \u012f istorin\u012f ry\u0161\u012f tarp FED pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 k\u0117limo cikl\u0173 ir obligacij\u0173 rezultat\u0173, laikotarpiai po pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 piko obligacij\u0173 turto klasei buvo labai palank\u016bs.<\/p>

Tikimasi, jog 2024-aisiais suvaldyta infliacija, pik\u0105 jau pasiekusios pal\u016bkan\u0173 normos, laukiami geri \u012fmoni\u0173 rezultatai bei i\u0161sipild\u0119s did\u017ei\u0173j\u0173 pasaulio ekonomik\u0173 \u201e\u0161velniojo nusileidimo\u201d scenarijus lems tiek pozityvius, tiek ir ramesnius metus finans\u0173 rinkose.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Finans\u0173 rinkos metus fini\u0161uoja u\u017etikrintai<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Indeksas \u201eS&P 500\u201c (EUR) \u0161\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f augo apie 2 proc. ir fiksavo devyni\u0173 savai\u010di\u0173 augimo spurt\u0105, kuris tapo ilgiausiu nuo 2004 m. Technologij\u0173 sektori\u0173 atspindintis \u201eNasdaq Composite\u201c (EUR) taip pat neatsiliko ir paskutin\u012f met\u0173 m\u0117nes\u012f augo beveik 3 proc. \u0160i pakili tendencija pasirei\u0161k\u0117 ir kitose pasaulin\u0117se akcij\u0173 rinkose.<\/p>

Gruod\u017eio m\u0117nesio nuotaikas rinkose daugiausia l\u0117m\u0117 l\u016bkes\u010diai d\u0117l JAV ekonomikos \u201e\u0161velnaus nusileidimo\u201c bei tik\u0117jimo, kad infliacija normalizuosis, nesukeldama didesnio nuosmukio. FED atid\u017eiai stebimas pagrindin\u0117s infliacijos rodiklis lapkrit\u012f i\u0161augo minimaliai ir i\u0161liko \u017eemiau numatyto 2 proc. tikslo. Tai buvo pirmas kartas per daugiau nei trejus metus, kuomet \u0161is rodiklis nukrito \u017eemiau 2 proc. ribos, o tai dar labiau sustiprino l\u016bkes\u010dius d\u0117l pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 ma\u017einimo kitais metais.<\/p>

Laukiamas pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 ma\u017einimas ypa\u010d naudingas ma\u017eesn\u0117ms technologij\u0173 \u012fmon\u0117ms, kurios per pastaruosius por\u0105 met\u0173 smarkiai nukent\u0117jo d\u0117l nepalankios makroekonomin\u0117s aplinkos. Aktyviai valdomi \u201eARK\u201c bir\u017eoje prekiaujami fondai (ETF) savo sud\u0117tyje turi nema\u017e\u0105 dal\u012f toki\u0173 \u012fmoni\u0173. Pastar\u0105j\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f spart\u0173 atsigavim\u0105 parod\u0117 ir ma\u017eos kapitalizacijos \u012fmoni\u0173 sektorius, kuriam palankios yra \u017eemesn\u0117s pal\u016bkan\u0173 normos.<\/p>

Taigi, akcij\u0173 rinkoms metus baigiant ties rekordiniais lygiais, ko laukti 2024-aisiais? Analitik\u0173 prognoz\u0117se optimizmas mai\u0161osi su atsargumu. Ekonomikos nuosmukio galimyb\u0117 teb\u0117ra diskusij\u0173 tema, ta\u010diau jo tikimyb\u0117s prognoz\u0117s \u2014 gerokai ma\u017eesn\u0117s nei prie\u0161 metus.<\/p>

Pavyzd\u017eiui, \u201eBank of America\u201c linksta \u012f optimisti\u0161kesn\u012f po\u017ei\u016br\u012f, ir tikisi \u201e\u0161velnaus nusileidimo\u201c, kuomet ekonomika pakankamai sul\u0117t\u0117ja, kad pa\u017eabot\u0173 infliacij\u0105, nesukeliant nuosmukio. Remiantis tarptautin\u0117s nacionalin\u0117s verslo ekonomikos asociacijos apklausos duomenimis, daugiau nei trys ketvirtadaliai apklaust\u0173 ekonomist\u0173 mano, kad recesijos tikimyb\u0117 per ateinan\u010dius 12 m\u0117nesi\u0173 yra 50 proc. ar ma\u017eesn\u0117. Tai rodo, kad nors ir pripa\u017e\u012fstama nuosmukio rizika, daugelis ekspert\u0173 mato didel\u0119 galimyb\u0119 2024 m. jos i\u0161vengti.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Kriptovaliut\u0173 rinkoje \u2014 nauja entuziazmo banga<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Vos prie\u0161 metus kriptovaliut\u0173 pasaulis buvo purtomas negand\u0173, neramum\u0173 bei did\u017eiausi\u0173 kriptovaliut\u0173 bir\u017e\u0173 \u017elugimo. Ta\u010diau pastaruoju metu kriptovaliut\u0173 rinka i\u0161gyvena nauj\u0105 entuziazmo bang\u0105 \u2014 bitkoino, populiariausios kriptovaliutos kaina \u0161iemet pakilo daugiau nei 160 proc..<\/p>

Viena i\u0161 \u0161io optimizmo prie\u017eas\u010di\u0173 \u2014 kit\u0173 met\u0173 prad\u017eioje laukiamas tiesiogin\u0117s prekybos bitkoino ETF patvirtinimas i\u0161 JAV vertybini\u0173 popieri\u0173 komisijos. \u0160iuo metu investuotojai gali \u012fsigyti tik bitkoino ateities sandoriais paremtus ETF, tod\u0117l tiesiogin\u0117s prekybos ETF yra itin laukiamas ir potencialiai gali pritraukti nauj\u0105 investuotoj\u0173 bang\u0105 \u012f kriptovaliut\u0173 rink\u0105.<\/p>

Kitas svarbus kit\u0173 met\u0173 \u012fvykis \u2013 baland\u017eio m\u0117nes\u012f numatomas bitkoin\u0173 padalijimas. Tai vyksta ma\u017edaug kas ketverius metus, ir rei\u0161kia, kad nauj\u0173 monet\u0173 \u012f rink\u0105 pateks perpus ma\u017eiau. Istori\u0161kai \u0161is \u012fvykis buvo siejamas su kriptovaliut\u0173 rinkos augimu, nes suma\u017einus bitkoin\u0173 emisij\u0105, suma\u017e\u0117ja jo pasi\u016bla, o tai lemdavo padid\u0117jusi\u0105 paklaus\u0105 ir reik\u0161ming\u0105 kain\u0173 augim\u0105. D\u0117l to investuotojai \u012f \u0161\u012f \u012fvyk\u012f \u017ei\u016bri su nekantrumu ir tikisi, kad jis sukels dar vien\u0105 ral\u012f kriptovaliut\u0173 rinkoje.<\/p>

Ta\u010diau reik\u0117t\u0173 nepamir\u0161ti, jog \u0161i rinka vis dar yra labai rizikinga, pasi\u017eyminti dideliu nepastovumu ir kain\u0173 svyravimais bei spekuliacijomis. Tuo tarpu politikai vis dar nesutaria, ar kriptovaliutos yra gr\u0117sm\u0117 finans\u0173 sistemai, ar inovacij\u0173 \u0161altinis. Tod\u0117l reguliavimo neapibr\u0117\u017etumas kelia didel\u012f susir\u016bpinim\u0105, nes vyriausyb\u0117s ir finans\u0173 institucijos visame pasaulyje ir toliau sprend\u017eia, kaip valdyti ir pri\u017ei\u016br\u0117ti skaitmenines valiutas, o tai gali sukelti staigius politikos poky\u010dius, turin\u010dius \u012ftakos kriptovaliut\u0173 kainoms.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2023-ieji \u2013 kokie jie buvo finans\u0173 rinkose? 2023-iaisiais finans\u0173 rinkose i\u0161\u0161\u016bki\u0173 netr\u016bko. Auk\u0161ta infliacija, itin spar\u010diai grie\u017et\u0117jusi pinig\u0173 politika, bank\u0173 kriz\u0117 ir geopolitiniai konfliktai investuotojams k\u0117l\u0117 daug abejoni\u0173 ir neapibr\u0117\u017etumo. 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